各国氢氟碳化物排放量的估计
近日，复旦大学姚波团队报道了各国氢氟碳化物排放量的估计。相关论文于2026年1月28日发表在《自然—地球科学》杂志上。
具有高全球变暖潜能值的氢氟碳化物受《蒙特利尔议定书》基加利修正案管控。尽管中国已于2024年开始冻结氢氟碳化物的生产与消费，但2017年以来基于活动数据的自下而上排放估算存在差异，且缺乏基于观测反演模型的中国氢氟碳化物排放估算。
研究组利用中国境内的大气观测数据及反演模型，揭示了2011至2021年间中国九种氢氟碳化物的排放趋势变化。自上而下的排放估算显示，中国官方自下而上排放清单对2017年后氢氟碳化物排放量的年均高估达117.2亿吨二氧化碳当量。此外，研究发现虽然中国东部是最大的氢氟碳化物排放区域（占二氧化碳当量排放的37.4%），但非东部地区对国家总排放量的贡献占比更高（达62.6%）。
最后，数据显示在2011-2020年期间，除中国外的非附件一国家（即联合国气候框架下大多数发展中国家）贡献了全球氢氟碳化物排放增量的61.3%，远超附件一国家（23.9%）和中国（14.8%）的贡献。这些发现凸显了除中国外的非附件一国家对全球排放增长的贡献长期被忽视。
附：英文原文
Title: Estimation of hydrofluorocarbon emissions from China and other non-Annex I countries
Author: Fang, Xuekun, Du, Qianna, Mhle, Jens, Hu, Jianxin, Weiss, Ray F., Prinn, Ronald G., Harth, Christina M., ODoherty, Simon, Young, Dickon, Ma, Mengyue, Hu, Xiaoyi, Li, Bowei, Huang, Siyuan, Yao, Bo
Issue&Volume: 2026-01-28
Abstract: Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential are regulated under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. While China began freezing production and consumption of HFCs in 2024, there are discrepancies among previous activity-based bottom-up emissions estimates and lack of observation-based inverse modelling emissions estimates of China’s HFC emissions since 2017. Here we use atmospheric observations across China and inverse modelling to reveal distinct emissions trends of nine HFCs from 2011 to 2021 in China. Our top-down emissions estimates reveal an overestimation of HFC emissions post-2017 by an average of 117.2 Tg CO2-equivalent per year, by China’s national official bottom-up emissions inventories. Also, we find that while eastern China is the largest emitter of HFCs in China (37.4% CO2-equivalent), non-eastern China contributed to national emissions (62.6%). Lastly, we show that non-Annex I countries (mostly developing countries under the UN climate framework) excluding China accounted for 61.3% of the global HFC emissions growth during 2011–2020, far surpassing contributions from Annex I countries (23.9%) and China (14.8%). These findings highlight the overlooked contributions of non-Annex I countries, excluding China, to global emissions growth.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01908-9
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01908-9
